CUSMA Shake-Up: Strategies for Manufacturing, Auto, Agri & Meat Sectors in 2026

Toronto, ON – July 18, 2026

Comprehensive update on the latest developments surrounding the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and related issues affecting the manufacturing, automotive, agricultural, andmeat processing sectors. This summary also highlights recent government actions, sectoral impacts and how GTA Startegies can support your organization during this period of uncertainty.

1. CUSMA Status & Tactics

Annual Reviews, Not Renewal: The U.S. declined to renew CUSMA for a 16-year term, triggering annual reviews until 2036. This creates ongoing uncertainty for cross-border trade, investment, and supply chains, especially in manufacturing, auto, and agri-food sectors.

U.S. Leverage: The U.S. is using annual reviews to seek further concessions, particularly targeting sectors like steel, aluminum, autos, and dairy. This tactic increases unpredictability and risk for Canadian exporters and investors.

Business Impact: Many manufacturers are delaying or relocating investments, with 42% considering or having moved production to the U.S. due to trade uncertainty and tariff risks.

2. Sector-Specific Impacts

Manufacturing: Over 90% of Canadian manufacturing exports remain tariff-free under CUSMA, but the threat of new tariffs and annual renegotiations is prompting some firms to move south or delay capital projects.

Automotive: The Unifor union reached a tentative 3-year deal with Ford, securing jobs and future product commitments for 5,150 Canadian workers. However, U.S. content requirements and auto tariffs remain unresolved, impacting future investment and pricing.

Agriculture & Meat Processing: Open trade remains critical. Pork and other agri-food sectors benefit from integrated North American supply chains, but uncertainty is raising costs and complicating price discovery.

3. Mortgages & Financial Markets

Mortgage Market: The shift to annual CUSMA reviews has increased uncertainty for lenders and builders. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady for now but may cut if trade restrictions intensify. Fixed mortgage rates remain volatile.

4. Gordie Howe Bridge Deal

Profit-Sharing Agreement: The bridge opens July 27. Canada and the U.S. agreed to split net toll profits 50/50 for 15 years after operational expenses. There is disagreement over whether Canada’s debt costs are deducted before profit-sharing, potentially affecting Canada’s returns.
Sectoral Benefits: The bridge will ease congestion, lower logistics costs, and support auto and agrifood trade, but the revised deal means Canada’s cost recovery will take longer.

5. Government & Policy Developments

Advisory Committee: Minister LeBlanc met with the Advisory Committee on Canada-U.S. Economic Relations to discuss CUSMA, sectoral tariffs, and strategies to support affected industries.

Defense Capability: Canada is boosting defense capabilities and deepening cooperation with the U.S. and NATO, reinforcing the importance of integrated supply chains.

Chinese EVs: Chinese electric vehicles have arrived in Canada, with an eye on the U.S. market, raising new trade and regulatory considerations.

First Nations & Major Projects: The government has pledged to consult and partner with First Nations on major infrastructure and resource projects, though some chiefs remain skeptical about the pace and depth of engagement.

Diplomatic Appointments: Canada has appointed new diplomats to the U.S. to strengthen advocacy and manage trade relations amid ongoing tensions.

Steel Tariffs: Canada extended steel tariff measures for non-CUSMA partners by one year, with relief for certain U.S. and domestic products, but sectoral tariffs remain a challenge.

Government Initiatives: Financial support and policy measures are being deployed to help industries weather uncertainty, including reciprocal tariffs and investment in trade diversification.

How GTA Strategies Can Assist

Please let us know if you would like a tailored briefing or support in any of these areas. GTA Strategies is committed to helping your business navigate the evolving North American trade landscape.