CUSMA Review: Navigating Trade Risks in Construction, Agriculture, Meat Processing, and Manufacturing

Toronto, ON – June 28, 2026

As the July 1st review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) approaches, we want to provide a clear update on the latest developments, their impact on your sector, and how GTA Strategies can support your business through this period of uncertainty.

Key Developments in CUSMA Negotiations July 1st Trilateral Review

Canada, the U.S., and Mexico will meet virtually on July 1 to decide whether to extend CUSMA for another 16 years or move to annual reviews. Both Canada and Mexico have signaled their intent to extend, while the U.S. position remains unclear.

President Trump has publicly stated a preference to terminate CUSMA, creating significant uncertainty for all sectors.

Political Leadership and Canadian Demands

Prime Minister Carney and Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc are actively engaging with U.S. and Mexican counterparts, emphasizing the need for a fair deal that protects Canadian jobs and industries.

Canada has its own list of demands, focusing on maintaining supply management in agriculture, securing tariff relief for steel, aluminum, and autos, and protecting critical minerals and manufacturing jobs.

Canada and Mexico have formed a united front to push for a 16-year extension and resist U.S. attempts to divide negotiations into bilateral deals.

Sector Impacts

Construction: Ongoing tariffs on steel and aluminum continue to raise costs and delay projects. Infrastructure investments, such as the Gordie Howe Bridge in Windsor, remain critical but are affected by trade tensions.

Agriculture & Meat Processing: CUSMA has been highly beneficial for cross-border trade in livestock and agricultural products. Uncertainty threatens market access and could lead to new tariffs, impacting farm incomes and processing operations.

Manufacturing (including Auto): The auto sector faces particular risk, with U.S. proposals to raise North American content requirements and ongoing tariffs. Nearly 6,500 auto jobs have been lost since 2025, and further instability could disrupt supply chains and investment.

Regional and Market Outlook

Trade uncertainty is most pronounced in Alberta, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, with manufacturing, agriculture, and energy sectors expressing the highest concern.

Deloitte and other analysts warn that business investment is “on pause” as companies await clarity. Prolonged uncertainty could slow growth and delay major projects.

Global markets are watching closely, as CUSMA governs over $1.9 trillion in annual trade. Any disruption would have ripple effects across North America and beyond.

Canadian Businesses Diversifying

With U.S. trade relations uncertain, Canadian businesses are increasingly looking to markets like Japan and Mexico. Recent investments in Mexican ports and expanded trade missions highlight this shift.

A range of government assistance and support measures are available or in progress for sectors affected by CUSMA uncertainty and related trade disruptions:

1. Construction & Infrastructure

Build Communities Strong Fund: The federal government has launched a $51 billion fund to support long-term infrastructure investments, including multi-unit housing, community projects, and healthcare facilities. This aims to reduce development charges and support growth in priority communities, especially in British Columbia and Alberta.

Condo Conversion Initiative: The Canada-British Columbia Partnership on Condo Conversion will convert over 2,200 vacant condos into affordable housing, using innovative financing to quickly increase supply.

Major Projects Office (MPO): The MPO is streamlining federal processes to accelerate major infrastructure projects, supporting over 155,000 jobs and $138 billion in new investment, with a focus on Alberta and national projects.

2. Agriculture & Meat Processing

Tariff Relief and Trade Advocacy: The government is actively negotiating to maintain tariff-free access for agricultural products under CUSMA. Canadian agriculture, especially livestock and meat processing, has benefited from the agreement, and the government is pushing for its extension to protect these gains.

Sector Engagement: Federal ministers are meeting with industry leaders and unions (e.g., Unifor, National Pork Producers Council) to ensure sector concerns are represented in negotiations and to advocate for continued market access.

3. Manufacturing (including Auto Sector)

Negotiation Support: The government is prioritizing the removal of U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos, and is working to secure supply chains and job security for manufacturing workers. Unifor, representing auto workers, is in active talks with automakers and the government to secure better contracts and protect jobs.

Trade Diversification: Efforts are underway to help manufacturers access new markets, including expanded trade missions to Mexico and Japan, to reduce reliance on U.S. trade.

4. Forestry

Industry Transformation Strategy: The federal government, in partnership with provinces like B.C., is developing strategies to support the forestry sector, including technical advisory groups and efforts to boost non-U.S. exports.

5. Regional and Community Support

Affordable Housing Initiatives: New federal and provincial programs are funding affordable housing in cities like London, ON, and Red Deer, AB, including direct investments and grants for new units and transitional housing.

Domestic Trade Commissioners Network: This network helps businesses access new markets within Canada, supporting regional economic resilience.

6. Other Measures

Support for Coastal and Indigenous Communities: Ongoing negotiations and investments are addressing regulatory changes in fisheries, forestry, and aquaculture, with a focus on supporting affected workers and First Nations.

Emergency Aid: The government is providing humanitarian aid in response to international crises, though this is not directly related to CUSMA sectors.

How GTA Strategies Can Help Risk

Assessment: We provide tailored analysis of how CUSMA developments affect your specific operations, supply chains, and investment plans.

Scenario Planning: Our team models potential outcomes-extension, annual reviews, or termination—and helps you prepare for each scenario.

Advocacy & Representation: We work with industry associations and government contacts to ensure your sector’s priorities are heard in Ottawa and Washington.

Market Diversification: GTA Strategies can help identify and develop new export opportunities, including in Asia and Latin America, to reduce reliance on U.S. markets.

Communications: We craft clear, timely updates for your stakeholders, employees, and investors to maintain confidence during this period of change.