CUSMA Review Update: Sector Impacts, Government Initiatives, and What’s Next for Canadian Business

Toronto, ON – June 13, 2026

As the July 1 review of the Canada-U.S-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) approaches, we want to provide you with a concise update on the latest developments, sector impacts, and support available to help you navigate this period of uncertainty.

Key Developments & Diverging Opinions

Negotiation Status: The July 1 review is a milestone, not a hard deadline. CUSMA will remain in force even if a 16-year renewal is not agreed upon, defaulting to annual reviews for up to 10 years. Canada and Mexico have formally requested renewal, but the U.S. has signaled it may prefer ongoing reviews or seek significant changes.

Business Community Split: Canadian business leaders are divided. Manufacturing and steel sectors urge a quick deal for stability, while small business and tech advocates see potential leverage in waiting, hoping U.S. political shifts could yield better terms.

Trump’s Position: President Trump has publicly stated he is “not looking to renew” CUSMA, emphasizing U.S. self-sufficiency and threatening additional tariffs. However, most U.S. industry groups support the agreement, and outright withdrawal is considered unlikely in the near term.

Sector Impacts: Agriculture & Meat Processing

Tariffs and Uncertainty: U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have already caused significant disruption, with steel production down 60% and thousands of jobs lost. The agricultural and meat processing sectors face heightened uncertainty, as ongoing negotiations could affect export demand, input costs, and supply chain stability.

Farmers’ Concerns: Farm groups in all three countries are urging negotiators to preserve North American food and agriculture trade. Any changes to CUSMA could quickly impact farm margins, export access, and equipment costs.

Infrastructure & Strategic Initiatives

Gordie Howe Bridge: Customs and Border Protection are ready to facilitate trade across the new Gordie Howe International Bridge once trade talks are resolved. The bridge is expected to open soon, enhancing cross-border logistics and supply chains.
Fortress North America: Ontario Premier Doug Ford is promoting a vision of deeper continental integration—’Fortress North America’—to secure jobs, investment, and supply chain resilience. This approach is echoed in Ottawa’s new pitch, framing Canada as a strategic U.S. partner in energy, manufacturing, and critical minerals.
Government Leadership & Support

Minister LeBlanc’s Role: Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc has formally requested a 16-year renewal and is optimistic about reaching a better place on tariffs. He emphasizes that July 1 is not a “cliff,” and Canada is actively proposing solutions to U.S. concerns.
Prime Minister Carney’s Approach: PM Carney is coordinating a ‘Team Canada’ strategy, focusing on unity with premiers and a transactional, U.S.-friendly pitch. He acknowledges more work is needed, especially on sectoral tariffs and market access, but remains committed to protecting tariff-free trade for most goods.
Government Grants & Initiatives: The federal government has announced several initiatives, including a $5 billion Strategic Response Fund to support sectors, and regions impacted by tariffs, a new industrial defence strategy, and targeted investments in manufacturing and aluminum. These programs are designed to help businesses adapt and remain competitive.
Scenarios: With and Without CUSMA

With CUSMA: Stability for exporters, continued tariff exemptions for most goods, and a framework for resolving disputes. However, some sectoral tariffs and annual reviews may persist, prolonging uncertainty.
Without CUSMA: Potential for significant economic disruption, with GDP projected to be about 2% lower over the next year if U.S. tariffs average 10%. This could mean over $60 billion in economic losses, especially for export-dependent sectors.
Canadian Dollar & Economic Outlook

Currency Forecast: The Canadian dollar is expected to remain volatile amid trade uncertainty. Some forecasts see the USD/CAD easing from 1.39, but ongoing negotiations and tariff risks could impact the exchange rate and business planning.
How GTA Strategies Can Help

GTA Strategies is here to assist your business in:
Navigating CUSMA compliance and certification requirements
Assessing tariff exposure and supply chain risks
Accessing government grants and support programs
Developing contingency plans for various trade scenarios
Advocating for your sector’s interests in ongoing policy discussions