Understanding the Federal Elections – Week Five

Week Five – Campaign activity had slowed down during Week Four with the run up to the French and English debates.  However, with the Advance Polls being open over the Easter long weekend campaigns began to heat up as volunteers worked to get their identified voters out to vote.

When the number of voters was tallied, Elections Canada announce that a record 7.3 million Canadians has cast their ballots over the four days at the Advance Polls.  This was a record turnout.

In November 2024, Elections Canada said that there are 28.9 million registered voters in Canada.  The turnout of 7.3 million at the Advance Polls indicates that that slightly more than 25% of Canadians have already cast their votes.

Traditionally, a large turnout at the Advance Polls usually represents a change in government.  However, the party polling numbers remained at 43.1% for the Liberals and 38.4% for the Conservatives.  Commentators believe that the high turnout is a result of the Trump Tariffs and Trump’s wish to make Canada the 51^st State and that Canadians are giving Mark Carney and the Liberals a strong mandate to negotiate trade deals with Trump and new international partners.

This past week has seen the three main party leaders crisscross Canada as they drum up support prior to Election Day on April 28^th. 

While the polls are showing a slight decline in the Liberal numbers to 41 and a small increase in the Conservative numbers to 38 and the NDP numbers to 10, pollsters are still predicting a Liberal government.  The question now is will it be a Liberal majority or minority government?

The numbers of seats in the House of Commons are 344, with the number of seats required to form a majority government being 172.  After analyzing the different poll numbers, one pollster has projected the following seat distribution:

Liberal – 186
Conservative – 125
Bloc – 24
NDP – 7
Green – 1

At this point in the campaign, party workers are knocking on doors and making telephone calls to identify the last of their supporters.  On Election Day, campaigns will be working hard to ensure that they get every living, breathing support out to vote.

When the polls close in Ontario, many results from Atlantic Canada will be in.  It will then be time to see how close the pollsters and commentators are to the actual numbers.

The election on Monday, April 28 is one of the most important elections in our lifetime.

Please go out to vote!! 

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