The United States is heading into one of its most contentious midterm elections in recent history, and Canadian businesses have every reason to pay attention

Toronto, ON – October 23, 2026

Dear Business Leader,

The United States is heading into one of its most contentious midterm elections in recent history, and Canadian businesses have every reason to pay attention.

On November 3, Americans will elect a new House of Representatives, 35 U.S. senators, and numerous governors and state legislators.

With less than two weeks remaining, the political atmosphere has become increasingly hostile. Personal attacks, accusations of corruption, disputes over immigration, aggressive campaign advertising, and allegations of foreign interference are dominating the headlines.

For Canadian businesses, this is much more than an American political contest. The outcome could influence tariffs, cross-border trade, investment decisions, manufacturing, energy, transportation, and the future of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

The Election Campaign Is Getting Ugly

President Donald Trump has made himself a central figure in the midterms, campaigning for Republican candidates and urging Americans to support his economic and political agenda.

Democrats are campaigning heavily on affordability, health-care costs, government accountability, and opposition to Trump’s policies. Republicans are emphasizing immigration enforcement, taxation, public safety, and domestic manufacturing.

Some of the most closely watched Senate contests include:

• North Carolina: Republican Michael Whatley faces former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper. Trump has personally campaigned for Whatley, including a rally featuring sharp attacks on Cooper’s record.
• Georgia: Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins in a closely watched contest.
• Maine: Republican Senator Susan Collins is seeking re-election while attempting to maintain some political distance from Trump.
• Michigan: Republican Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. The contest has attracted particularly inflammatory rhetoric, including accusations by Trump concerning the Democratic candidate’s religious and political associations.
• Texas: Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a race attracting substantial national attention.

Billions of dollars are being committed to political advertising, and both parties are making the election a referendum on the country’s direction.

What Is President Trump Doing?

President Trump continues to promote his America First agenda, emphasizing tariffs, domestic manufacturing, immigration restrictions, and the return of industrial investment to the United States.

At campaign rallies, he has highlighted new American manufacturing investments, including semiconductor production, as evidence that his economic policies are delivering results.

At the same time, his administration’s trade measures and confrontational negotiating approach are creating uncertainty for Canadian exporters and manufacturers.

The administration has also become embroiled in disputes over election-related advertising, campaign rhetoric, and election procedures.

For Canadian companies, the immediate concern is that American domestic political considerations may increasingly influence trade negotiations and economic decisions.

Trump, Carney and a New Diplomatic Dispute

Relations between Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump remain complicated.

The two leaders spoke on October 11, discussing the situation in Ukraine and energy cooperation, including Canada’s continuing energy exports to the United States.

However, tensions over trade have continued.

The Trump administration has accused Canadian political figures of attempting to influence the American midterm elections. Prime Minister Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford have rejected these accusations.

In an extraordinary development, Global Affairs Canada has instructed Canadian diplomats stationed in the United States not to meet with or attend campaign events involving midterm election candidates.

Canadian officials have also been told to avoid photographs or publicity that could create an impression of political involvement.

Ottawa says these measures are intended to preserve diplomatic neutrality and prevent misunderstandings during an especially sensitive election period.

Prime Minister Carney indicated on October 23 that Canada remains prepared to negotiate on trade, but will not rush into an agreement simply to satisfy an American political timetable.

This is an important signal for Canadian businesses: a comprehensive resolution of Canada–U.S. trade disputes may take longer than many companies had anticipated.

How Is This Affecting Canadian Businesses?

Regardless of which party controls Congress after November 3, Canadian businesses must prepare for continued uncertainty.

Manufacturing and automotive: Tariffs, North American content requirements, and incentives favouring American production could affect Canadian manufacturing competitiveness and investment decisions.

Steel, aluminum and industrial products: Trade restrictions and retaliatory measures continue to create pressure on exporters, suppliers, and their customers.

Agriculture and food processing: Cross-border supply chains, inspection requirements, market access, and potential retaliatory measures remain important concerns.

Transportation and logistics: Changes in trade flows, border procedures, and American purchasing decisions can directly affect trucking, warehousing, rail, and distribution companies.

Construction and building materials: American industrial and procurement policies may affect Canadian producers of steel, lumber, fabricated products, and construction equipment.

Small and medium-sized businesses: Even companies that do not export directly may face increased costs through imported materials, equipment, components, and disrupted supply chains.

What Should Canadian Businesses Watch?

Over the next several weeks and months, we recommend paying particular attention to:

1. November 3 election results: Changes in congressional control could affect legislative priorities, oversight, and the administration’s room to manoeuvre.
2. New tariff announcements: Additional duties, exemptions, or changes in enforcement could alter costs quickly.
3. CUSMA negotiations: The direction of the North American trade relationship will remain critical as the agreement’s review process continues.
4. American industrial incentives: New investment incentives or procurement requirements may influence decisions about where companies manufacture and expand.
5. Canadian government assistance: Federal and provincial programs offering liquidity support, modernization funding, export diversification assistance, and workforce support could become increasingly important.
6. Canada–U.S. diplomatic relations: Statements from Washington and Ottawa should be monitored for concrete policy changes rather than campaign rhetoric alone.

How GTA Strategies Can Assist

At GTA Strategies, we are closely following developments in Washington, Ottawa, and Queen’s Park and their potential implications for Canadian businesses.

Canadian businesses should not wait until the next tariff announcement or trade disruption to investigate the assistance and options available to them.

If your company is being affected by tariffs, considering expansion, exploring new markets, or seeking government funding, we would welcome an opportunity to discuss how GTA Strategies may assist.

The American election may be taking place south of the border, but its economic consequences will certainly be felt here in Canada.

We will continue to monitor developments and keep the Canadian business community informed.

Have a great weekend.

We look forward to hearing from you.