The U.S. midterm elections are November 3 — and Canadian businesses have a lot at stake

Toronto, ON – October 14, 2026

On November 3, 2026, Americans will vote in elections that could change the balance of power in Washington and influence the future of U.S. tariffs, trade relations, and the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

For Canadian businesses already dealing with tariffs, rising costs, and supply-chain uncertainty, the outcome deserves close attention.

The Trump Factor — Will It Change Congress?

President Donald Trump is not on the ballot, but his policies are central to this election.

Recent polling indicates that economic concerns, affordability, tariffs, and Trump’s leadership are influencing voters. Republicans are defending the administration’s economic and trade agenda, while Democrats are challenging its impact on American consumers and businesses.

The question for Canada: Will the election increase congressional pressure to reconsider tariffs, or will the administration continue its current approach?

The Close Races To Watch

Several competitive Senate contests are particularly relevant to Canadian trade:

• Michigan: Automotive manufacturing and Ontario–Michigan supply chains.
• Ohio: Steel, aluminum, automotive production, and industrial exports.
• Maine: Forestry, energy, agriculture, and cross-border trade.
• Iowa: Agriculture, food processing, and farm equipment.
• Texas: Energy, manufacturing, and North American investment.
• Alaska: Energy, natural resources, and Arctic development.

Competitive House races will also help determine which party controls Congress and how much scrutiny the administration faces over its trade policies.

What Happens To Tariffs After November 3?

Three possible outcomes deserve attention:

Republicans retain Congress: Trump’s trade agenda could continue with fewer congressional obstacles, although some Republican lawmakers may seek relief for affected industries.

Democrats win the House: Increased congressional oversight, hearings, and pressure to review tariffs could follow.

Democrats win both chambers: Congress could pursue broader legislative and oversight measures affecting trade policy.

However, a change in Congress does not automatically eliminate tariffs. President Trump retains substantial executive authority over trade policy.

CUSMA — The Bigger Issue For Canada

CUSMA remains in force, but its future is uncertain following the July 2026 joint review and the failure to secure an agreed extension.

Canadian businesses should closely monitor potential developments involving:

• Steel, aluminum, and automotive tariffs.
• Rules of origin and North American content requirements.
• Agriculture, dairy, and softwood lumber.
• Cross-border supply chains and customs procedures.
• Investment, manufacturing, and market access.

The midterm results could shape Washington’s negotiating environment, but they will not alone determine CUSMA’s future.

What Should Canadian Businesses Do Now?

Do not wait for Washington to make the next move.

Companies should review their tariff exposure, strengthen supply chains, explore alternative export markets, and assess available government assistance.

Federal and provincial initiatives, including the Regional Tariff Response Initiative, Ontario Together Trade Fund, and Strategic Response Fund, may provide eligible businesses with funding and financing to adapt, modernize, and diversify.

How GTA Strategies Can Help

At GTA Strategies, we help Canadian businesses with government relations, identify grants and financing opportunities, prepare funding applications, and address challenges from government policies and trade disruptions.

Whether your business is affected by tariffs, seeking new markets, or considering expansion, our team can help identify potential government support and develop a practical strategy.

The Bottom Line

November 3 could change the political landscape in Washington — but it will not end the uncertainty facing Canadian businesses.

The critical questions are what happens to tariffs, how CUSMA negotiations develop, and whether Canadian companies can remain competitive in an increasingly unpredictable North American market.

Canadian businesses must stay informed, plan ahead, and be prepared to act.

If your business is facing tariff-related challenges or seeking government support, we would welcome the opportunity to speak with you.

We look forward to hearing from you.